Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-14 20.303567 22.018330 23.866548 26.016316 28.460308 31.166924 34.411340
2025-09-21 17.401101 19.721563 22.393221 25.734074 29.853952 34.842317 41.457687
2025-09-28 16.038894 18.843512 22.254896 26.797227 32.827978 40.780148 52.466990
2025-10-05 14.546768 17.548129 21.351644 26.667773 34.156837 44.765592 61.849606
2025-10-12 13.415533 16.537585 20.630991 26.593772 35.443601 48.830116 72.376374
2025-10-19 12.652387 15.903304 20.299625 26.955004 37.339352 54.107024 86.461164
2025-10-26 11.865878 15.147712 19.697732 26.807110 38.377672 58.156832 99.710237
2025-11-02 11.149574 14.419627 19.049828 26.484145 39.041216 61.646881 113.144065
2025-11-09 10.610630 13.894404 18.639387 26.463804 40.179581 66.222691 130.974791
2025-11-16 10.073014 13.327849 18.111806 26.181504 40.790393 69.880892 148.387674
2025-11-23 9.609610 12.836642 17.655155 25.958019 41.458661 73.798771 168.745843
2025-11-30 9.192156 12.385837 17.223721 25.725500 42.062868 77.715664 191.692553
2025-12-07 8.814454 11.979136 16.842248 25.559112 42.812221 82.281487 220.893381
2025-12-14 8.428125 11.537807 16.375200 25.195266 43.110743 85.869256 249.998860
2025-12-21 8.334005 11.543599 16.636384 26.186155 46.443605 98.466537 334.013655
2025-12-28 8.039381 11.214836 16.314620 26.044324 47.254236 104.381641 394.944346
2026-01-04 7.778795 10.926221 16.040722 25.965815 48.198886 111.080364 474.480614
2026-01-11 7.607553 10.772192 15.986314 26.311622 50.216391 122.076556 616.019212
2026-01-18 7.370454 10.498023 15.703584 26.167567 51.001677 129.268855 752.514861
2026-01-25 7.123840 10.196672 15.354738 25.855209 51.309866 134.924636 900.548409
2026-02-01 6.936466 9.985412 15.154459 25.835345 52.391208 144.162777 1157.639870
2026-02-08 6.724655 9.723863 14.848343 25.562644 52.746873 150.686071 1432.569505
2026-02-15 6.533388 9.489249 14.578931 25.346762 53.233148 158.135973 1826.353763